Трампономика II

[prakapovich]

 Now let us reconsider Jay Powell’s and Andrew Bailey’s Jackson Hole speeches in this light. Instead of an average rate of annual price inflation over the last ten years of 1.69%, Chapwood tells us that that average is 10.1%, varying between 13.4% in Sacramento and 7.1% in Albuquerque. It is against this background that Powell proposes to downgrade the Fed’s inflation mandate. Given M1 monetary inflation averaged 16% between the Lehman crisis and last February (see Figure 1) the price effect recorded by Chapwood is not surprising. But it gets worse for Powell. If we accept Chapwood’s numbers as being realistic and use them to deflate nominal GDP, we can see that the US economy has been in a slump for the last ten years: adjusted GDP has contracted by 65% since 2010.


https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/inflation-running-out-of-road